The NCAA Tournament started with underdogs, ended with favorites and saw only Kentucky and Baylor fall as top-3 seeds in the first two rounds. The betting public dominated, while first half overs and big chalk brought bettors to the bank.
We're here to answer tourney questions, dish out stats and facts, talk futures, coaches, Cinderellas and more.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, March 26, 6 p.m. ET.
Below are some of the highlights, but trust us, this only scratches the surface. For more, and we mean LOTS more, click here for the full Action Network betting primer!
Big Favorites Lead Way
Even after underdogs won 12 games outright in the Round of 64, which was the most since 2001, favorites had their way in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Storring the Cash
Let's start with Dan Hurley. His 11-3 ATS (79%) record is the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979. Hurley is the only remaining coach in the field who has won a national championship.
Connecticut has covered eight straight NCAA Tournament games dating back to the start of their 2023 run. They are an astounding 24-6 ATS (80%) in their past 30 NCAA Tournament games since 2009, covering the spread by 7.2 PPG with a $100 bettor up $1,624.
In Connecticut's past six Sweet 16 trips, the program has six Elite Eights, five Final Fours and four championships.
The Alabama Rocket
The Alabama-North Carolina total is sitting at 173.5 across multiple books. All three of Alabama's NCAA Tournament games have made betting history this year.
Highest NCAA Tournament Over/Unders since 1995 season
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) March 25, 2024
+ . - / ()
+ 173 - Alabama/Grand Canyon (2024)
+ 172.5 - Alabama/Charleston (2024)
The three highest NCAAT totals are the Tide's first three tourney games this year. pic.twitter.com/m88cgU59c5
Bama Next
Hubert Davis is 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach. He is just the third coach since seeding began in 1979 to start his coaching career 8-0 ATS or better in the tournament. Gary Williams started 9-0 ATS, while Andy Enfield started 10-0 ATS.
The Lower Seed
It's not often that Duke is facing a team where the Blue Devils are the lower seed. This will be the 15th time it's happened to Duke in the seeding era and it is 6-8 SU and 8-6 ATS in those games. But recently, it hasn't gone so well.
Duke is a 4-point underdog against Houston — they haven't closed as a 4-pt dog or higher since their 1994 National Title game loss vs. Arkansas.
Duke has lost six consecutive tournament games as the lower seed, losing five straight ATS in that spot. Its last win came back in 1994.
Is This The Year?
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. Here are the teams left in the tournament that fit that criteria: Arizona, San Diego State and Gonzaga.
A reminder that no team west of Texas has won a men's college basketball national title since 1997 pic.twitter.com/Xrqh8gXtSq
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 17, 2024
Don't Lose Early
Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in a conference tournament made it to at least their conference semifinals (won at least one game). In that span, eight champions never actually had a conference tournament ('97 ARI, '95 UCLA, '89 MICH, '87 IU, '81 IU, '79 MSU, '78 UK, '77 MARQ). No eventual national champion has ever lost its first conference tournament game, either (h/t Stuckey).
If this trend holds true, here are some of the teams that won't win this year: Duke, Creighton, Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama.
Tough Start
Entering this year, in the 64-team era, there have been 38 teams to enter the tournament as a 1- or 2-seed that weren't ranked in the preseason AP poll. They have combined for zero Final Fours, averaging fewer than two wins per tournament (via KenPom).
This year, that is Iowa State. Not to mention …
Iowa State entered the season at 100-1 odds to win the national championship and is now a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cyclones are the 11th top-2 seed to be 100-1 or higher entering the year since 2009. The previous 10 teams never made it to the Final Four.
Tighter, Later
When it comes to the later rounds, fade the movement. When the line moves two points or more from opening to closing after the Round of 64, those teams are 9-26 ATS since 2005.
When that team closes as a 2-point favorite or higher, they are 4-17 ATS. Track the line movement here on Action Network.
History Coming?
North Carolina and Connecticut are both popular betting picks against the spread for the public. If they close at 75% or higher for their spread bet percentage, they'd make this list.
Since 2005, only 13 teams have closed with at least 80% of the spread bets in any round of the NCAA Tournament. Those 13 teams are 2-11 ATS.
Biggest Public Sides in Sweet 16 or Later Since 2005
Record Weekend
The old "fade the public" mantra had been a profitable strategy year-to-year during March Madness, but that all stopped in the early rounds of this tournament.
After the First Round and Round of 32, the betting public (51% of spread tickets or greater) is 38-13 ATS in the NCAA Tournament — the best public NCAA Tournament start in the Bet Labs database by a wide margin.
Hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. There's tons more great stuff in Action Network's betting primer!
More must-reads:
Bark Bets is Yardbarker's free daily guide to the world of sports betting. You'll get:
Subscribe now!